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Sunday, March 18, 2018 

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How Often Do Hurricanes Hit Florida?)


In 2017 the Atlantic hurricane season was significantly more active than normal and Florida was hit by category 4 Hurricane Irma, sustaining significant damage due to wind and flooding.
Prior to 2016, Florida had been on a hurricane-free winning streak. The Sunshine State had gone a record 11 years without a landfalling hurricane. But that decade-plus streak came to an in September 2016, when Category-1 Hurricane Hermine made landfall before weakening into a tropical storm.

A few weeks later, in October 2016, Category-3 Hurricane Matthew did not make landfall in Florida but spent an entire day churning up the coast just offshore, battering towns, causing several deaths, and leaving over a million Floridians without power.

Planning a getaway in Florida? Here's what you should know about hurricane season.

What is a hurricane? Tropical storms with high wind speeds that meet the criteria for a hurricane fall into one of five categories, with the strongest being a Category-5 hurricane.

When is hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 with the peak period from early August through the end of October. The month of September tends to produce the most hurricanes. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

What does a typical hurricane season look like? Based on historical weather records dating back to 1950, the Atlantic region will typically experience 12 tropical storms with sustained winds of 39 mph, of which six turn into hurricanes with winds reaching 74 mph or greater, and three major hurricanes category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

It's important to note that most of these hurricanes do not make landfall in the United States.
How many hurricanes typically hit Florida? On average, one to two hurricanes (or more specifically, 1.75 hurricanes) make landfall on the US East coast every year. Of those, 40 percent hit Florida. Since 1851, 37 hurricanes have made direct hits on Florida.
There is little to no correlation between the total number of storms and those that make landfall in any given season. For example, 2010 was an extremely busy season, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Yet no hurricane, and only one tropical storm, made landfall in the US that year.
What does it mean for my vacation plans? Statistically, there is a very low risk that a storm will impact your vacation. Still, if you're planning to vacation in Florida between June and October, you might consider buying travel insurance or opting for a hotel that offers a hurricane guarantee. Typically, if your trip is cancelled or interrupted due to a storm, you can be refunded up to the limit of coverage. Note that in most cases, insurance must be purchased more than 24 hours before a hurricane is named. 
Also note that tropical storms that don't reach hurricane status can still put a damper on your vacation by bringing non-stop rain for days. You may not be able to cancel your vacation without a penalty, but you should keep an eye on weather forecasts and plan (and pack) accordingly.
How can I stay on top of hurricane warnings? If you're traveling to a hurricane-prone destination, download the Hurricane app from the American Red Cross for storm updates and a slew of helpful features.
Recap of Hurricane Season 2017
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a wildly active, ruthlessly deadly, and extremely destructive season that ranked among most ferocious since records began in 1851. Worse yet, the season was relentless, with all 10 of the season's hurricanes occurring consecutively.

Most forecasters missed the mark, either slightly or significantly underestimating both the number and fury of the storms. Early in the year, forecasters anticipated that an El Niño would develop, lowering storm activity. However, the predicted El Niño failed to develop and instead, cool-neutral conditions developed to create a La Niña for the second year in a row. Some forecasters adjusted their predictions in light of the developments, but none fully comprehended how the season would unfold.

Keep in mind that a typical year brings 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The year 2017 had a significantly above-average season that produced a total of 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. Here is how forecasters fared with their predictions for the 2017 season.

  • NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) slightly underestimated the season, having predicted an "above-normal" season with 11 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.
  • Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) also predicted above-average activity with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
  • Tropical Storm Risk from the University College London underestimated the ferocity of the season by predicting 14 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
  • The Weather Channel also predicted a normal season, with 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
  • North Carolina State University's Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences also missed the mark by predicting a normal hurricane season with 11 to 15 named storms, four to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
  • Accuweather was way off, having predicted a slightly less active-than-normal season, with 10 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
  • Colorado State University also predicted a year slightly less active than typical, with 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
So on the surface, that doesn't sound so bad, as far as predictions go or does it?

Let's graph it out and see just how these "experts" did.

Well, on the surface, it would appear that they all did a mediocre job of predicting or guessing the future, didn't they?  As far as "named storms" (the blue column) , it was two that guessed above the normal (but not as high as the actual recorded storms), one was right on, and four below the normal.  For hurricanes (the red column), it was one above the norm, two right on, and four below the normal.  For major hurricanes (the green column), it was two above the norm, two right on, and three below the normal.  Note the word "guess" that's thrown in there since they all seemed to be very close to the normal year in their predictions.

It would appear that "The Weather Channel" used the "normal year" in their predictions (with the exception of the green colum / major hurricanes where they predicted a slightly better than average year).

Based on all that data (and being without the expensive computers and highly paid meterologists, the Chronicle can make the same predictions for the year 2018.  There will be 12 named storms (blue column), six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.  Now we just have to wait until 2019 to see how well the Chronicle did.  LOL!

March 18, 2018

Stormy Weather is a 1957 studio album by Lena Horne, released by RCA Victor in monophonic. Recording took place between March 1956 and March 1957, at Webster Hall, New York.


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